Two leading Madison Avenue forecasters, GroupM and ZenithOptimedia Group, agree that the ad market will decline in 2009, though they predict different degrees of erosion. Both firms released their forecasts on Monday.
GroupM says U.S. ad spend will decline by 3.2%, while ZenithOptimedia predicts a 6.2% drop during 2009. ZenithOptimedia, whose report said the fallout from the financial crisis has spread throughout the real economies of the developed world, also revised its ad-spending growth projection from its prevision prediction of 4% to –0.2% for 2009.
Despite the continued downward adjustment of the total market, both GroupM and ZenithOptimedia project growth in Internet spending. Though growth will be slower than previous meteoric rates, GroupM sees online spending increasing by 10% in 2009. ZenithOptimedia is even more optimistic, predicting an 18% growth of Internet ad revenues. The Internet’s wellbeing is a sign of the medium’s commercial maturity and a marked difference from the 2001 recession, which was precipitated by a collapse in the online ad market.